\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.
As a cryptocurrency perpetual contract trader, you may have seen the index price and the mark price at least once while trading. It seems that many traders are confused about the differences between the index price and the mark price, so I will explain these two prices and the dual price mechanism used in perpetual contracts.
🎯 What is the Dual Price Mechanism?The dual price mechanism consists of the mark price and the last traded price. This mechanism protects traders from damages caused by market manipulation, lack of liquidity, or differences in spot prices and futures prices. It also provides a fair trading environment for all traders on MCS, and is used to minimize the price gap between spot prices and the perpetual contract prices.
In order to fully understand the concept of mark price, you first need to know the concept of index price.
🎯 Index PriceYou can think of the index price as a spot price. The MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange refers to a total of 7 exchanges to calculate the BTC/USDT index price, and the exchanges are Binance, Bitfinex, Huobi Global, OKEX, Bittrex Global, HitBTC, and Poloniex. So basically, the index price of the MCS BTC/USDT perpetual contract is the average price of the same cryptocurrency pair's prices on the aforementioned 7 global exchanges.
🎯 Mark PriceThe mark price is the price reflecting the status at-the-moment of the MCS exchange to the index price. The mark price is also known as the fair price in some exchanges. The formula for calculating the mark price is "Index Price * (1 + Funding Basis)", and the formula for calculating the funding basis is "Current Funding Ratio * Time Remaining Until Funding Settlement / Funding Interval". Since the calculated mark price represents a more accurate perpetual contract price, the MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange uses this mark price as a measure to trigger the liquidation.
🎯 Last Traded PriceThe last traded price is the market price of a pair (like BTC/USDT) on the MCS exchange. In short, it refers to the most recent price of the actual trade on MCS.
If you have understood the concepts of each of the above terms, this question will pop up in your head: "so, why do we need a dual pricing mechanism?" Let me answer that question with an example.
🎯 Why Use The Dual Price Mechanism[Example]
The mark price and the last traded price are at similar levels of 10,000 USDT and 10,001 USDT, respectively. At this time, Bob wants to enter a short position with 100x leverage using his entire Bitcoin inventory on MCS. At that moment, the last traded price suddenly drops to 5,000 USDT causing the rapid fluctuation in price. Nevertheless, the mark price remains at 10,000 USDT.
In this situation, if the last traded price was used as a measure of liquidation, most of the long-positions with leverage would have been liquidated. Therefore, in order to prevent unfair liquidation like the case above, MCS applies the dual price mechanism.
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.
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﷽submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
Last week we talked with our adviser and CEO at Nusantara Trust Dr Walter Tonetto. He answered a number of questions that interest our customers.submitted by digitalgoldcoin to golderc20 [link] [comments]
How did you land in the cryptocurrency / blockchain space?
I was advising startup businesses in the technology space, and when 2016 came around, I asked Scotty, the feisty chief engineer of the U.S.S. Enterprise, to beam me into the heart of the finance system; I felt more and more the irresistible tug towards remodeling the current toxic financial system. Purposive remodeling, of course, is going on all the time, and it’s a knife that cuts into two directions. The vast majority of the ‘woke’ crowd actually believe that they can ‘disrupt’ the power of the elites that control all money flows. Bathing limestone statues – registering about 4 on the Mohs scale and 0 on the scale of reason -- of past leaders in district waters may give you a feeling of breathing the air of revolution and tiring unknown muscle-groups in your shanks, but think of it like a father watching his child toss around shovels of soil in a sandbox; he smiles benignly from afar, knowing it won’t change a thing; all the luxurious appointments at home won’t get touched. It is a grave illusion to suppose that by playing around with payment systems and technologies we will actually change the role and the emission of money. You may be permitted to become the shoe-shine boy in the royal household, but don’t think you will marry the princess and dilute the royal blood! But understanding the constitutive parts of power aggregation, and working over significant time-frames, allows for approaches and solutions; -- but these should come not from another adversarial position, thus merely marking a displacement of the incumbent, a change of guard, but from an authentic re-orientation, of making benefits much more widely possible and not creating monetary systems that are grossly imbalanced and highly destructive. That, and not building tech stacks, is the challenge!
What was your initial reaction to bitcoin?
Well, I was following the file-sharing service Napster since it started, around 1999 – when the U.S.S. Enterprise was sitting pier-side at Huntington Ingalls Newport shipyard, rusted and gutted, and to me the P2P sharing paradigm was always present in my mind, shining buffed and radiant, so even the centralized Napster was something wholly natural to me – Dr Sheldrake calls it morphic resonance. We live with a great deal of blurriness, though. On the one hand, we think of the virtues of sharing; on the other, there is a seemingly indefatigable impulse to control and dominate. Sean Parker, after founding and floundering with Napster, became a cocaine-snorting egotist and president of Facebook. Collecting money for a charity, he gets aggressive with people who do not follow suit. A control-freak in overdrive. Notwithstanding the technical variations, BTC, seemingly freeing us up from fiscal controls and yet showing our craving for money, exemplifies the flawed perception at the root of things. Monero, which sounds like a much faster, highoctane vehicle, a CV8-Z of the crypto-track, beats BTC in regard to privacy and fungibility, though BTC has advantages in other areas.
Which is a much more common trend nowadays?
It’s hard to make out the shapes of wild-life in the current kangaroo market we’re in. The bulls and bears have mauled one another, and the kangaroo, bereft of oxygen on account of wearing a tight mask, is hopping wildly everywhere. But clearly the possibilities of digital currencies became un-tethered via Bitcoin and the querulous and hidden Satoshi. I like to think of him more as an idea rather than as a person; an idea is generally more malleable and consequential. For instance, rather than laud the benefits of crypto for FX and cross-border payments, the possibilities of a central-bank issued digital currencyENCOMPASS THE POTENTIAL to inscribe new roles for programmable money; for how money is issued, how it is used, and what role custodial mechanisms (traditionally in the hand of commercial banks) might have. I see HUGE potential for private firms to enter the equation here, but we need more open-minded and intelligent regulators that do not always look for the rungs of the career-ladder in any move they make! A DAO could be most helpful here, but we are currently under the terror of algorithms that are not concerned with the welfare of the greatest number of people. If I had the time I would coauthor a book on this theme with a skilful mathematician (perhaps with my son, who is completing a Ph.D in near-term Quantum Algorithms).
In 2018 I was keynote speaker at the BlueWhale forum in Seoul, and I spoke about an Algorithm of Peace. I had a clutch of people approach me straight after the talk, some from Korea, others from the U.S., and ask me to develop my ideas in book form.
Where do you see the price of bitcoin going over the next few years?
I wouldn’t speculate, but since everyone is shilling it, it is bound to keep pushing north, occasional blockages otwithstanding. I always look for twists and incongruities in the usual narratives on offer. Many BTC fans talk about the unbanked, but BTC is held by what will become another elite in due course, and the unbanked will later be serving them the chilled drinks between innings, as usual.
Do you think that there’s a time for altcoins to break out and move away from the movements of bitcoin? What’s that tipping point that needs to take place?
I have some notions under which alt-coins can take the lead and leave bitcoin behind, but it’s too complex to explain the conditions for that to occur. Once very solid use-cases have been established with a clutch of alt-coins, bitcoin might begin quavering in his boots. That alt-coins should take BTC as a benchmark speaks volumes about the lack of maturity of this young and over-eager market. The fuzzy umbilical cord is always present like a foot-tangle; alt-coins must find their own ground, and clip the connection to a vagrant father. Finance needs clarity and not fuzziness. Keep in mind that many sovereign nations bridle at the calamitous influence of the US on payment systems, so nations are building their own messaging systems outside SWIFT, and their own securities exchanges are following. But remember: these are all crumbs: the U.S. can shut down payments to any recipient accounts by informing the payments company and doling out threats. And since all alt-coins and fiat currencies are connected to payment gateways in some form, the U.S. would have to begin reforming its archaic ACH structure to enable efficiencies in the financial pipes, which does not offer real-time payments functionality. This accounts for the relative simplicity (and success) of the PayPal business model (which Venmo and Dwolla later emulated without using credit cards). But understand that the elites will always protect the real crown jewels, and incite wars (or street battles and racial squabbles, as we’re witnessing in the U.S. in mid 2020) so that they can get away with major financial heists in broad daylight. It’s all smoke and mirrors, and scorched talons if you look closely: you cannot trust the reflection you will receive on a smoky pane. Only the big players know the predetermined outcome.
One fundamental misprision occurs amongst alt-coin apologetes: they fail to understand how markets move and what the designated role of money is in markets. Even if you want to displace something, you first need to understand exactly what you’re dealing with, but that is rarely the case. Yes, banks are structurally and constitutionally part of the problem, but no government will dare cross swords with them: there is still too much aggregated power. Ripple and Stellar are two Blockchains that are working with, and not against, banks, and that likely makes them much better candidates for wide acceptance.
What’s one must-read book you recommend to everyone?
That depends so very much on who’s sitting opposite me! I wouldn’t push what is not naturally aligned. But I would push a couple of films urgently, as essential viewing for everyone:
“Vaxxed: From Cover-Up to Catastrophe” (and a sequel), which profoundly shocked me, but confirmed my suspicions. Talking about books: one gets a good sense of the kind of books I would counsel people not to touch, unless an overweening impulse bade them otherwise. For instance Steve Pinker, a favourite author of Bill Gates. Pinker in Gates’ hands explains a lot about the character of the reader, the latter of whom I consider one of the most dangerous people on the planet at the moment. If we stay with Pinker for a moment, since he’s famous and fashionable (Harvard professor with a Medusa hairdo and an effete libertarian air, who in “Better Angels of Our Nature” has affirmed that man is not innately good), we note in his presentation in regard to his ineptly titled book “Enlightenment” that he falls prey to the very flaws he chastises, the classic Münchhausen trilemma (in Jakob Fries’ phrase). Picture Baron Münchhausen pulling himself out of quicksand by his own hair! That he is beholden to neoliberal befuddlement becomes clear when two of the opening images of his talk show Vladimir Putin with a rifle andDonald Trump speaking on a podium. The classic neoliberal Harvard think-tank shows reason to be failing and drowning in pious gestures to the cognoscenti and anointed. I like to look for effective counters for specious and shallow argument: for instance, Rupert Sheldrake’s “The Science Delusion” is a splendid book that bucks the Dawkins’, Pinkers and other materialists of this age. You see, if one listens to Pinker with the head alone, his pedestrian epistemology might not irk, and some ideas might appear plausible enough in a desultory encounter, but if you really want to know the meaning of things, and discover how it relates to the heart, you feel betrayed and given short shrift by him. Among the platitudes he gives out in carefully parsed syllables, the movement of his forehead and eyes betray the spirit behind the façade. Yet I always look, like Yeats, for those who “had changed their throats and had the throats of birds”!
What’s the rainbow trout of the year? Nut-like flavour, the eye still gleaming, with tender, flaky flesh? There are many books I could cite for different genres. The vast majority of modern writers, for all their accomplishments, lack genius, don’t really understand the art of writing, and so cannot hold my attention for long. For those who are open-minded and spiritual, “A Course in Miracles” cannot be bested, but don’t touch it unless you’re really willing to dive deep. There is no need to save the world, since it is nothing but projection; there is no world. You might experience the deepest sigh of relief, as if Atlas had cast off a burden after the Titanomachy. Paul Celan once remarked that “reality is not simply there, it must be sought for and won.” Snorkeling near the surface and blowing bubbles won’t cut it.
We are living in times of great manufactured unrest, which will only heighten in coming months and years, and so I would offer a guernsey to Seamus Heaney. I had met him many years ago, alas cursorily, at a symposium at Waseda University where I was working as a Gaikokujinkoshi, an Associate Professor, where another Nobel laureate, Kenzaburō Ōe and he were giving a reading. Heaney was inspired to write “The Grauballe Man” on the basis of the bog man that he had seen in a book of prehistoric times, but the troubles in Ulster were alive in him, too:
As if he had been poured in tar, he lies on a pillow of turf and seems to weep
the black river of himself. The grain of his wrists is like bog oak, the ball of his heel
like a basalt egg. His instep has shrunk cold as a swan’s foot or a wet swamp root.
Talking of Japan here, methinks, is an aculeate observation of Japan:
Cross the intersection at Shibuya Station in Tokyo on a forbidding wintry evening — touted as the world’s busiest cloverleaf — and you will feel this is Eliot’s London Bridge revisited, with quaggas (think half zebras) preserved in the tar of the five crossings; — flattened ebon bones dreaming the dreams of Pleistocene mammoths — as the mass of the dead mill past you, chasing some mirage, and often accompanied by a revenant that must have been disgorged from a Pachinko parlour. Blanched lilacs float in minarets of light beyond these bituminous quaggas, bidding the odd-toed ungulates in their psychotropic dernier cri and fuddy-duddies in theirstygian suits to sup here or buy over yonder: all tethered to their devices. One might be surprised that no cracks are forming at these arced crossings with strange requisitions folding into the hiemal air. And yet it is still more odd that so few people see this as a primped and pimped potter’s field, a graveyard for those who’ve lost their way. We’re living in an age where the multitude of the dead are pacing among us in perdurable trysts with other zombies.
The above text is from one of my unpublished works; again it speaks to me – and perhaps to you – about the quiddities of this age. There is a distinct sense of zombification taking place on the planet at the moment. Is your lineage that of Dolly, or are you magnificent and free?
Do you have any theories about who Satoshi is?
I don’t really, though I follow the haughty chit-chat at times, especially in the jejune forums LinkedIN provides. I think the person has a good reason to remain concealed (forever), but that is also a major factor why I have never fully trusted bitcoin as an investment proposition.
Keeping the provenance concealed suggests a number of things, none of them conducive to embracing bitcoin as a common form of payment.
What do you think about the prospects of gold in connection with the uncontrolled money printing by different Central Banks?
Gold is what BTC can never become, especially when its provenance remains totally unclear – as well as its likely endgame! Central Banks engage in quasi-criminal activity – and one hopes the future prudent regulator won’t be making it too difficult for people to hold gold bullion. The Perth Mint might be a splendid little dot on the global map, but beware of holding your assets in the form of gold coins: many governments will regard them as forms of payment, and may impose all manner of restrictions on the possession of it.
Let's dream a little. How stablecoins can be used after 5 years from now?
I believe the great RESET is coming – even Davos and the U.N. are alerting us to that. The Covid19 panic has been declared by more than 1500 German physicians as a “global Mafia-style deception”, and while Big Pharma and Bill Gates will likely earn trillions of dollars by the useless and potentially dangerous vaccines that will be foisted on “free” citizens, the finance system as a whole will need to be RESET. We are already receiving an inkling of how draconian and void of reason and concern for the people most governments of the world are reacting to a harmless lab-manufactured virus (virologist Prof Luc Montagnier, Nobel Laureate in medicine in 2008, said that), so it’s possible that regulators may become more tyrannical, and under some pretext or other forbid the use of alt-coins. STABLECOINS can be over-collateralized, allowing absorption of pricing fluctuations, but it will be hard to call. I believe many are bound to fail, and that even earlier, despite all their most valiant efforts: as soon as the RESET comes, which is likely to come with all manner of encumbrances. There are many reasons for the issuance of stablecoins, some having opposing views, but all are dependent on trust – and we don’tknow yet if digital currencies that governments will issue will by regulatory over-reach (including absurd compliance requirements) displace other contenders, but you can assume that the tyrannical forms of governance we are currently experiencing suggest that all kinds of skullduggery are possible.
Do you see the problem of fiat stablecoins in the fact that annual inflation constantly depreciates them? An investor who bought $1000 USDT now and sold these tokens in 10 years for $ 1000 will receive much less money.
The problem occurs if we’re converting things back into payment forms that are fundamentally flawed. Inflation and Black Swan events are the major threats to stablecoins, and tethered crypto-values to natively burdened propositions recalls my earlier idea that we have not yet cut the umbilical cord to bitcoin. On the other hand, stablecoins in their current flavour are perhaps best viewed as transitional schemata that will need later revisitation.
You are a very successful Crypto and ICO Advisor, what is the secret behind this success?
I’m not sure if I’m very successful, but I always try to shoot a straight ball. Here are two instances where my input has not been heeded in any way.
I recall one of the first ICOs I advised. I was sitting with the owner on a Telegram Channel, and after some power Q&A sessions online, we were literally hearing the millions of dollars tumble in neat digital hashes into the inbox within a couple of hours of the ICO opening. He had a bottle of Scotch on his table, and by the end of the session he had reached his hard cap and was besotted to boot! The age of digital money had placed the foolscap on his pate, but the script was no longer legible. I cannot determine if his sobriety ever returned. The prudential advice I had been giving him previously – and that we had discussed in great depth -- was over coming weeks thrown out of the window, and I assume other bottles of Scotch ended up on his desk and didn’t last long.
Here is another example. At one time a well-known ambitious individual in the U.S. cryptospace, a young lawyer, asked me if I wanted to start a crypto compliance organisation with him.
When I think of him now and the feathery assistants he congregated around him, I think of the lines in Dickens’s “Bleak House”: “Mr. Tangle’s learned friends, each armed with a little summary of eighteen hundred sheets, bob up like eighteen hammers in a pianoforte, make eighteen bows, and drop into their eighteen places of obscurity.”
Simply to continue serving wine from the same sour vats won’t do. I saw that as a prospective idea, and offered some important advice to get the ball rolling. Soon we had recruited many eager beavers to the exercise, and there was talk of it becoming an influential body. I was naïve enough to assume at the time that my co-founder, a black college asketballer with body tattoos who had a write-up in a major paper on account of his ambition and aggression, was actually interested in asking some fundamental revisionary questions about compliance in relation to the freedom of the citizen. When I suggested we don’t just copy the traditional compliance template and rather probe more deeply, he became insolent and very aggressive. That confirmed my instinct that most ambitious players in the crypto-space are actually dyed-in-the-wool bourgeois, and don’t care about improving the system itself.
What is your advice for upcoming Crypto startups and investors?
You might know the technology well, but do you know the business? Does it really deeply address, even solve, a problem? How much life experience do you have, and how well do you know the market? Can you create a market for your product or services? If yes, how will you do that? Have you only got yes-men around you, or are you willing to listen to those who speak Tacheles to you? If you’ve come to water the plant of your ego, your business will flounder. Most achievers keep their ego initially in check, and get the work done.
For investors the answer I would give is rather complex, but here’s a brief response: often the mandate of investors is very narrowly girded, and they trust their old boy networks, and rarely venture out and follow their instincts. That is foolish, and also the recipe for a dull life.
Perhaps a general observation that everybody might ponder with profit is the idea that we know really so very little of the world; that the news and information we are are offered and digest, even when it is tendered by so-called ‘experts’, is often seriously ignorant. It seems our perspective is getting narrower all the time, as if our mind is shrinking and we block out knowledge.
Let me give another current reference point. In 2020 everyone is fearful of viruses. Viruses currently have a bad rap! We have no idea what they actually are. We are always hobbling around with our fearful partisan gaze, and what is good today becomes bad tomorrow. Yet viruses are adroit and malleable messengers of inter-species DNA, in some sense regulating vast populations of organisms. Think of them as cellular simpletons: mere protein shells with few genes, but endowed with the ability to replicate easily despite their paucity of genetic instructions! They form alliances, you might say, with other forms of life. And they are deeply mysterious to our acquisitive and ignorant segmenting intelligence: how can the papillomavirus cause horns to grow on rabbits; and at the same time cause hundreds of thousands of cases of cervical cancer every year? Is one good and the other bad? It would seem so. Such simple summary, like Pinker’s reductionist view of the world, might becalm for a moment, but does not offer lasting satisfactions. To read the world along the axes of like and dislike, as the Buddha had warned us, leads to great suffering.
I’m told by someone who met Bill Gates a long time ago that the man was apparently even then obsessively fearful of viruses (imagine a pendant to Lady Macbeth, continually cleansing his hands). But do we have any clue what viruses actually are, and how they benefit us all in so many incalculable ways? When the child crawls around, it picks up antigens (bacteria and viruses) and on that basis builds its immune system. At various points of that contact and exchange new forms grow, and other forms decay and die. Like CO2, viruses are suddenly declared dangerous and that we need to shield ourselves against them. Yet how many people know that marine phages rule the world, and rule the sea? This was not discovered until 1986. An electron microscope showed that every litre of seawater contained up to one hundred billion viruses, almost as much in dollars as BillGates expects to make off vaccines in 2020. If you put these viruses end to end, they would stretch out forty-two million light-years! Viruses offer stunning genetic variety, and they are the very pulse of life! When viruses swallow oceanic microbes, they release a billion tons of carbon every day: imagine squalls of marine snowfalls, powdering the porous sand of the deep. Imagine the white nights of St Petersburg under water, celebrating the magic of life with the same skill and abandon as the Mariinsky Theatre, to an audience of gastropods, deep-water fish and lovelorn mermaids.
Seamus Heaney, when he passed in 2013, spoke the word Noli timere (“Do not fear”) to his wife as he breathed his last. Instead of being fearful, we might do well to assert that we understand nothing of the manifold wonders of this world! Let us cultivate the virtue of wonderment, and fear will find no habitation in our house:
And lonely as it is that loneliness Will be more lonely ere it will be less— A blanker whiteness of benighted snow With no expression, nothing to express.
They cannot scare me with their empty spaces Between stars—on stars where no human race is. I have it in me so much nearer home To scare myself with my own desert places.
Website : https://gold.storage/ Whitepaper: https://gold.storage/wp.pdf
Follow us on social media: Twitter: https://twitter.com/gold_erc20 Telegram: https://t.me/digitalgoldcoin Steemit: https://steemit.com/@digitalgoldcoin Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/golderc20/ Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5161544
submitted by 58CoinExchange to u/58CoinExchange [link] [comments]
Too many novice players entering the currency circle are often attracted by some magic wealth-making tales. However, reality will tell you that investment is a science, and there are no shortcuts. The same is true for seemingly magical currency circles.
So everyone must be aware of these four issues before entering the currency circle:
Is the contract risk really higher than the spot?
What indicators should be paid attention to in the currency market?
What are the basic usage specifications of contract tools?
What should be the first indicator of concern in contract trading?
Why has Bitcoin fallen into a downturn recently?
The A-share gains in the past two days have been gratifying, and many currency friends have begun to consider returning. However, the right side that shows the downturn of Bitcoin has caused a lot of confusion. Why has Bitcoin into a short market in the past two weeks? 58COIN experts pointed out two main reasons.
One is the concentrated selling of miners. From June 23 to the early morning of June 24, the miners sold more than 5000 BTC. Then at 3 pm on June 24, Bitcoin began to fall sharply, so that in June It fell below the $9,000 mark on the 25th.
Second, Bitcoin is still highly correlated with traditional markets such as S&P 500, and the collapse of traditional financial assets might also have caused it to fall into a short market, which is similar to the logic behind the 312 Bitcoin crash.
Should you proceed to stick to the spot?
Bitcoin is stuck in the short market. JiuCai is facing a very real problem that most crypto-lovers are still persistent in spot trading, although most also know the role of the contract in the downtrend which allows to make money, but naturally we all think that the contract means high risk, means less safety than the spot. But this is a typical cognitive misunderstanding.
In fact, the contract is the same tool as the spot, and the contract is not necessarily riskier than the spot.
The contract is similar to the futures of the traditional financial market. It can be bearish and bullish, and it is leveraged in nature, without delay, and is traded in real time. In particular, perpetual contracts are a new risk hedging and hedging financial instrument compared to futures in traditional financial markets. In the case of holding positions of the same value, when the opening points are the same, under the same market situation, the profit and loss of the two tend to be the same, but because the contract has additional leverage, the principal occupied is less than Spot, so in comparison, the risk of the contract may not be higher than that of the spot, and the capital utilization rate and return rate of the contract can be obviously better than the spot . In addition, even in a bear market, contracts can be profitable, and the operational space is actually much richer than the spot market.
Of course, some people have their positions liquidated frequently, which is quite scary. This tells us that no matter how good the tool is, it still needs to follow the basic rules of use. 58COIN experts give these few tips on contract trading:
Strictly control positions and leverage, choose only one option either high leverage or numerous positions, numerous positions + high leverage together will undoubtedly run towards the crematorium;
Opening orders is driven by opportunity logic rather than emotions. Mastering this logic requires investors to strengthen their scope and knowledge, to look at many indicators, and establish a full-dimensional indicator system.
In short, for all players, "less positions, lower leverage and close when you see fit" will never go out of style.
Establishing a full-dimensional indicator system
As the teacher of 58COIN said, you must speak logic when you open an order. In fact, this applies to any kind of investment market. So in the digital asset contract market, how to understand the logic of opening?
Different from the stock market, the digital currency market has insufficient liquidity and high price fluctuations. 58COIN experts believe that digital asset investors need to build a full-dimension decision-making system if they want to be comfortable with it. In addition to some basic technical indicators, investors should also observe some data indicators, network indicators and market sentiment indicators, and refer to authoritative trading reports.
Some indicators are listed as follows:
• Data indicators & composite indicators: new addresses, active addresses, number of transactions, transaction volume, total addresses, Metcalfe index, Odlyzko index;
• Transaction report: CFTC COT report;
• Network indicators: 360 index, Baidu index, Weibo index, Google index;
• Market sentiment: panic index, greed index.
After establishing your own indicator system, you must balance your mentality, always maintain a suspicious mentality, fear the market, evolve yourself, and insist on continuous learning.
It’s important to focus on maintaining margin ratio
Maybe you didn't make a contract, but you should have heard the saying "close out" many times. Yes, the first task of making a contract is to prevent liquidation. What are the key indicators of liquidation? On the surface, the liquidation price or risk level has not reached the critical value, but it is actually the available margin (the remaining principal under the isolated margin). Can the lower limit of the maintenance margin be met, and what indicators can be used to measure this limit ? Maintain margin rate.
It sounds unfamiliar at first, but you can understand that insolvency will lead to liquidation. If the maintenance margin rate is high, the platform will force to close in order to protect you from losing too much and. If the maintenance margin rate is low, the platform will remain friendly, allowing you to reconsider your actions in order to avoid losing too much. Therefore, players must first choose platforms that maintain a low margin rate when playing contracts, which means their contract design is more friendly. If you really don 't have time to make a choice, you can first try the industry's more recognized "king of contracts" 58COIN, which is currently the industry's fixed minimum value of 0.5%, and there is no holding fee.
There is no shortcut to investment, contract is a learning, any successful investor is evolved thanks to constant improvement and learning.
The financial crisis predicted by economists has finally begun. As we have seen, since March 9, 2020, the virus that has spread throughout the world has become a catalyst for a sharp decline in financial markets.submitted by FinnHe to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The growing economic crisis has triggered collective panic, and for 99% of people, it is imperative to restore as much liquidity as possible. Logically, we are facing a liquidity crisis that is having a significant impact on the liquidity of all financial markets around the world. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Index has fallen by 20% in the past 5 days. Over the past month, the Dow Jones Index has fallen by about 30%, and the S & P 500 has undergone the same adjustment.
In the rest of the world, the situation is exactly the same. For centuries, gold has been used as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis, but in recent days it has fallen by more than 10%.
When everyone is in panic, there is no safe haven at all. In this case, it is impossible for Bitcoin to not fall. Bitcoin is a highly liquid market, and it can even be said that it is the only truly free market in the world.
Even though Bitcoin has evaporated $ 60 billion in market value in just a few hours, it continues to operate, allowing investors to find equilibrium prices on their own.
Whether an asset has hedging properties requires long-term measurement. Similarly, the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets cannot be concluded in these days. At this point, if we step back, we can see the big picture instead.
Although the price of Bitcoin has changed, has its fundamentals changed? No, the fundamentals of Bitcoin March 18 are the same as those of March 1. Bitcoin still maintains good fundamentals, which gives us reason to be optimistic about the future of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is as scarce as ever
The price of Bitcoin dropped from $ 9,000 to more than $ 3,000 within a few days. Its price has now stabilized at around $ 5,300. The current global situation is in turmoil, and panic in the market may cause the price of the currency to fall below $ 5,000 again.
However, no matter what the price of Bitcoin is, it remains as scarce as ever.
Bitcoin is still the rarest decentralized invention ever made by human beings, and no matter what happens, the maximum supply of Bitcoin will not change. No leader in this world can change the fact that the total amount of Bitcoin is 21 million.
So after the crisis, gold and bitcoin will eventually resume their roles, and when prices will rise again, those who have seized the opportunity will get huge returns.
Unique monetary policy
Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Realizing that the currency and financial system have reached their limits, Satoshi Nakamoto decided to officially launch the Bitcoin experiment on January 3, 2009, and wrote in the genesis block: The Treasury Secretary is on the brink of saving the bank for the second time. "
Therefore, we can also think that Bitcoin was created for what we will experience in the coming weeks or months. When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he hoped to obtain a scarcity similar to gold, so the longer it took, the more difficult it was to create a new Bitcoin. For every 210,000 additional transaction blocks, the number of newly mined Bitcoins will be halved.
Initially, for every additional transaction block in the Bitcoin blockchain, 50 new bitcoins will be generated, and by May 2020, the bit will be halved for the third time, after which each additional block will only add 6.25 BTC. Therefore, the number of new bitcoins created daily in the future will be reduced from 1800 to 900, which will have a certain impact on the total supply of bitcoin.
This single monetary policy is a huge advantage of Bitcoin over the current monetary and financial system. After the third Bitcoin halving, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin supply will definitely fall below 2% to 1.8%. In the future, bitcoin's annual supply inflation will tend to zero, and will reach zero in 2140, at which time all bitcoin will be mined.
Bitcoin's monetary policy can protect what you have, and it was still valid when the Fed just decided to inject more than $ 700 billion in US banks. It can be said that from the perspective of how Bitcoin operates, the Fed still has a lot to learn.
Bitcoin network is still decentralized
Anyone can join the Bitcoin blockchain and become a node in the network. In the Bitcoin world, all users are equally important. All this makes Bitcoin able to withstand the obstacles of powerful people in the current system.
No one can stop you from using Bitcoin at will. At any time, if you want, you can sell all your Bitcoins. This is why the price of bitcoin has fallen sharply in the past few days. Bitcoin operates permanently by letting users determine its equilibrium price.
Once the stock price falls too fast, Wall Street will cease to trade. At this point, Bitcoin once again shows its superiority over Wall Street. The basic fact that Bitcoin is the only truly free market in the world has been proven again a few days ago.
Bitcoin remains a secure decentralized network
In its 11 years, the Bitcoin network has never been hacked. Bitcoin's security has never been breached and it's incredible to think about it, because hackers from all over the world have been trying to attack Bitcoin over and over again.
Still, Bitcoin has stood on its feet. The theft in the Bitcoin world exists only at the weakest link: trading platforms and users. Since its birth, Bitcoin has been operating normally 99.98% of the time. There is nothing enviable about the normal operation of Internet giants such as Google, Amazon, or Facebook.
However, Bitcoin's secure operation is based only on the user's computing power. These people are so convinced about the future of Bitcoin that they have been providing more computing power to the network.
At the beginning of 2020, the hashrate of the Bitcoin network reached a peak of 130TH / s. The recent drop in the price of Bitcoin and the accompanying collective panic have led to a decline in computing power, but currently still maintain the level of 100 TH / s.
In this crisis, Bitcoin remains the most secure decentralized network in the world. Secondly, you should notice that the basic situation of Bitcoin has improved a lot since the end of 2017. Due to the sharp increase in transaction volume at the end of 2017, the overall network speed has slowed down, but this time, Bitcoin standing in the storm has been able to absorb an entire transaction volume peak without any stalls.
Bitcoin still belongs to everyone
The high fluctuations in the price of bitcoin in the past week remind us that bitcoin still belongs to everyone and everyone can sell bitcoin freely. When Bitcoin depreciated by 50% within hours, the transaction continued.
At the same time, once the market falls more than 7%, Wall Street will suspend trading for 15 minutes. This fusing mechanism has been applied several times since the liquidity crisis broke out in the market.
Wall Street is not a free market. It belongs to a few powerful people who protect their interests at all costs. Once the market does not turn around and continues to fall, Wall Street will call on the Federal Reserve to maintain the current system.
The Federal Reserve ’s monetary stimulus measures have become less and less effective. It cut interest rates by 100 basis points on March 15, 2020. At the same time, it introduced a quantitative easing plan to reduce the bank deposit reserve ratio to zero. This series of measures was even affected Opposition to Wall Street. Once again, Bitcoin stands out in the current system with its strong fundamentals.
[Today's Hot Tips]submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]
1. [Wilshire Phoenix applies for publicly traded BTC funds]
Investment company Wilshire Phoenix applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a publicly traded Bitcoin fund.
2. [Be careful about BTC bulls next week, weight allocation for short and long strategy signals]
The current COT report still shows that the bulls are taking the initiative in the BTC futures market. The current short data for Dealer accounts continues to increase, showing that the factors of bulls in the market are still expanding. The bulls in the Asset Manager account grew slightly, and the shorts did not change, showing that speculative funds have repaired the bullish sentiment in the market. Judging from this week's position report, the market should continue to be bullish. However, since the Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday was later than the time when the reported data was collected this week, it is still unclear whether Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting affected the organization's view of the future market.
Therefore, we suggest to adopt a cautious and bullish attitude towards the operation of BTC next week, that is, weight allocation such as short and long strategy signals, but the stop loss space and holding period of the long strategy can be larger and longer .
3. [Vitalik Buterin: "Ethereum sky-high handling fees transfer" may actually be extortion]
According to Cryptopotato news on June 13, in response to the "Ethereum sky-high handling fees transfer", Vitalik Buterin, the Ethereum founder said that these "million-dollar handling fees may actually be extortion." His theory assumes that the sending address belongs to a cryptocurrency exchange, and the hacker has obtained partial access to exchange keys. Since they do not have a complete key, they cannot withdraw, but they can send invalid transactions at any Gas price. Therefore, they threatened to "burn" all funds through transaction fees unless compensation was received.
[Today's market analysis]
BTC fell slightly in the early hours of this morning, the lowest fell to 9301 USDT, and then continued to rebound, briefly regaining 9400 USDT, and the highest rose to 9488.5 USDT. BTC is currently finishing in a narrow range around 9450 USDT. Mainstream currencies basically followed the broader market, rebounded slightly in the early morning, and did not fluctuate as a whole. BTC is currently reported at 9432.7 USDT on LOEx Global, an increase of 0.15% in 24h. How to predict the future? Since bitcoin will follow the direction of the US stock market in extreme moments, what we need to grasp is the direction of US stocks. How will US stocks go?
First of all, I think the trend of US stocks will be complicated, and firmly believe that the second fall of US stocks. Having said that, the Great Depression plunged 6 times that year. We can observe that the first plunge caused by the new crown epidemic was a crash. It melted 4 times in a row, and the Dow Jones index fell by more than 10,000 points within a few days. However, the second decline of US stocks is expected to be much more complicated. It is very likely that this is a three-step rebound and two-step resistive gradual decline. The plunge on June 11 may not be the beginning of the second round of US stocks plunge. What is the reason? Because the first plunge in the United States, many chaebol institutions were too late to ship and adjust asset allocation. Therefore, the rebound of US stocks in the two months after the March plunge was extremely sharp, and the market also made full use of the favorable conditions of the epidemic home. The record number of retail account openings in the United States is a record, which forms a large amount of ultra-short-term speculative funds. This interaction has allowed stock-selling institutions such as Buffett to withdraw large sums of money from the stock market in the past two months. However, their asset scale is too large, so the second round of decline should be planned under the control of people's hearts, and it is unlikely that the first round of continuous plunge under the extreme panic will occur again. The drop on June 11 may also be just a sign that the frog was boiled in warm water.
Under this possible trend of US stocks, Bitcoin's future trend may also seem confusing. In the past two days, many big bosses are guessing the rise and fall of Bitcoin. In general, there is a greater possibility of falling first and then rising. The first decline was due to the depreciation of all assets, which meant that a large chunk of funds in the global financial market was not transferred but eliminated. As a risky asset, Bitcoin naturally drops its "valuation". The latter rise was due to high elasticity, the proliferation of the US dollar and capital seeking speculative opportunities will eventually cause new short-term speculative funds to flood into the Bitcoin market and bring new markets in the future.
Support level: the first support level is 9300 points, the second support level is 9000 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 9500 points, the second resistance level is 9800 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 1 million community members in 24 hours.
submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]
The basics of crypto-trading: indicators, charts and trend lines
Halving on the Bitcoin network has become one of the key events in the cryptocurrency market, which has fueled the interest not only of long-standing players, but also has caused the release of new ones. This is evidenced by recent data on the growing demand for crypto assets on top cryptocurrency exchanges such as Bithumb Global. For those who are just getting acquainted with the crypto-market and want to try their hand at trading a new class of assets, we will tell you what tools crypto-exchanges offer and how to use them in crypto-trading.
To start trading cryptocurrencies, you must first select:
• Crypto-wallet — there are several types of crypto-wallets: hot, cold, desktop, mobile and paper. All of them provide different levels of security and convenience. At the same time, the best option for storing cryptocurrencies is the use of two different wallets — hot and cold. So do most large companies working with digital assets.
• Crypto-exchange is a trading platform that will allow you to exchange, buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Such platforms can be centralized (CEX), decentralized (DEX) or hybrid, combining the qualities of CEX and DEX.
• A crypto-portfolio is a collection of crypto-assets collected for profit. It is best to form it in three stages: part of the currency for long-term storage (from 1 year and longer), another part — a medium-term deposit (up to six months) and a deposit for trading for several days or a week. When starting crypto trading, it is advisable to diversify your investment in a deposit for trading, paying attention not only to the potential of a particular coin, but also to the ways of earning that the cryptocurrency market offers. Experts advise at the initial stages to choose assets from the top 10 rating by capitalization.
Terminology• Order — a trader’s request for a cryptocurrency transaction. Orders are divided into market orders — for purchase (Buy) or sale (Sell), and pending — requests for a transaction at a non-market price, waiting for it to be at the right level. Pending orders include:
⁃ Limit — for sale / purchase at a price higher / lower than the current market price
⁃ Stop loss — orders to limit the loss
⁃ Take Profit — Take Profit Order
• Market maker and market taker are market participants who create and accept orders. The market maker creates a new transaction request, increases the turnover of the exchange and raises the liquidity of the crypto asset, while the receiving market taker takes the asset out of circulation, lowering its liquidity. In this connection, different commissions are introduced on some crypto exchanges for makers and takers.
• Exchange Cup or Order Book — a table with limit orders, which displays the closest sellers and buyers, where sellers’ orders are marked in red, and buyers are marked in green. The columns of the table show the number of cryptocurrencies and the price at which they intend to sell or buy. At the junction of these tables, a spread is formed — the difference in the price of supply and demand. The lower the spread, the more liquid the cryptocurrency. The analysis of the stock market is a leading indicator of the state of the market, since it allows you to predict changes before they happen.
• Long and short positions (Long and Short) — the usual “mode” of trading. In the case of a long position, we buy cheaper and sell more. It is believed that the growth of assets in the market is a long process, therefore, work in this direction is also called long. The second option means a short position, that is, a game for a fall. The market believes that the decline in the value of assets occurs quickly, that is, in a short time. Therefore, this position is called “short.”
• Exchange chart — shows the change in the price of cryptocurrency over time and is the most important tool for technical analysis. Charts display price changes with a line, bar and candlestick.
• Bulls and bears — in the market so-called buyers and sellers. There is an analogy with the nature of animals: buyers always push the price up, creating a demand for something, and it turns out that the price seems to be pushed by horns. In this connection, bulls are optimists, they believe that the prices of the shares they bought will rise, and someday they will sell the asset more expensive than they bought. The bulls in the market are overwhelming (by approximate estimates, up to 80%), long investments are kept on them, and the bull trend means stable growth of stocks and general welfare. Bears, in turn, are sellers who have learned to capitalize on a falling market: they usually try to sell cryptocurrencies faster, often lowering the price of an asset. Concluding a contract for the sale, they fix its value, and then wait until the goods fall in price, close the deal and put the proceeds in their pocket. Bears are interested in a constant reduction in prices and achieve their goal, provoking an increase in supply: open short positions and sell until the price drops to the desired level.
• Technical analysis is a set of tools for market forecasting of prices based on the movement of value in the past. In technical analysis, the same tools can be used for different markets and trading pairs with a slight adjustment of indicators. Also, technical tools are equally successfully used on any timeframes — from a minute to a year.
• Fundamental analysis — this type of analysis is based on the consideration of financial and production market indicators that may affect the price of a traded instrument. The mood of market players, current and growing trends, indicators of production activity — all this information can give an extensive idea of the potential of the investment object in question. The main disadvantage of the fundamental analysis is that the information provided by him is insufficient to predict the movement of prices in some local areas. It is possible to determine a potentially good company that has excellent financial performance and has real prospects, but it will be impossible to determine the moment of entering a short-term profitable trade with a good indicator of risk to profit ratio.
• Pattern — behavioral model / trading setup / market pattern. Patterns are one of the most common methods for analyzing price movements. Each pattern is always based on a certain idea, the simplest and most understandable. There are a lot of trading models, but all of them are derived from the classical model of breakdown or rebound from certain significant price levels.
Basic cryptocurrency trading tools at Bithumb GlobalUsing the example of a centralized cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb Global, we will analyze the main elements that cryptotraders will encounter in the initial stages of trading. When choosing a cryptocurrency exchange, first of all, you need to pay attention to the presence of:
⁃ Convenient ways to deposit and withdraw funds
⁃ Fiat currency support
⁃ High number of trading pairs
⁃ Information on the current state of cryptocurrency rates
⁃ Cryptocurrency Rate Charts
⁃ Technical indicators
⁃ Different levels of user verification
⁃ Built-in cryptocurrency wallet
⁃ 24/7 tech support
On the Bithumb Global main page, a selection of top trading pairs is offered, where cryptocurrency tickers are listed, their price, exchange rate for the last day, daily trading volume and the asset quotes movement chart.
Top trading pairs at Bithumb Global. Source.
If you select a pair from this list, then Bithumb Global will automatically transfer the user to the Base Version of Spot Trading. Spot trading — the terms of the transaction with cryptocurrency, in which payment is made to both parties immediately.
Here the user can get acquainted with the latest price of an asset, the volume of transactions with it, data on transactions and the minimum and maximum prices for the last day.
Basic Version of Spot Trading on Bithumb Global. Source.
You can select another trading pair in the top menu by hovering over the corresponding button, but the easiest way is to find the desired pair through the search. At the same time, the Professional Version of Spot Trading opens up a wider set of tools for the user, which will be discussed later.
Trading Tools Professional Version Bithumb GlobalOn the Professional Version, users can use price charts in the form of Candles, which look like a series of vertical lines and display price changes, where the upper point shows the maximum that the price has reached and the lower one — the minimum. If the closing price is lower than the opening, then the candle will be painted red or black, and if higher, then green or white. Knowing the direction of the price movement (body color of the candle), we can say exactly where the closing and opening prices are.
Price chart in the form of Candles at Bithumb Global. Source.
Also in this version of Spot Trading, a price chart is available to users in the form of a Glass, where sellers ‘bids are marked in red and buyers’ bids are marked in green. The analysis of the stock market is a leading indicator of the state of the market, since it allows you to predict changes before they happen. If, for example, a large congestion of sales requests at the upper price limit can be noted, then as soon as the market reaches this limit, a recession will provoke, triggered by a large number of sales.
Price chart in the form of a Glass on Bithumb Global. Source.
Price charts also have different timeframes — from 1 minute to 1 week, which allows you to conduct a more in-depth analysis of the movement of quotes of the selected asset.
Bithumb Global price chart timeframes. Source.
Also in this version of Bithumb Global, various Indicators are available to traders. In total, the cryptocurrency exchange provides about 80 different indicators that will help in the technical analysis of the movement of crypto asset quotes.
Let’s analyze the main indicators available on Bithumb Global:
• Volume — allows you to track the number of transactions completed by traders over a specific time interval. Green and red bars are indicators of the volume of transactions: red signals a decrease in volume, green — its growth. By analyzing the volume of transactions against the background of the price movement chart, you can confirm the strength of the trend or reveal its weakness and predict a price reversal. If prices rise and trading volume rises, we observe a bullish trend. An increase in trading volume in the event of a decline in prices indicates a bearish trend.
• Moving Average (MA) is just as popular a tool as volume is. The indicator function analyzes the average prices for the selected time interval, which gives a relative idea of the general price trends. If the actual price of cryptocurrency for a long time keeps above the moving average, we can assume that it will continue to grow. Accordingly, a fall below MA is a signal to lower the price of an asset. For more accurate forecasts, it is advisable to use several moving averages based on different time intervals. Moreover, in case of disagreement, it is customary to consider the value of the average based on a longer period of time. If the signals from several moving averages coincide, we can talk about a fairly accurate forecast.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) — having trained on one moving average, we will move on to a comprehensive analysis of this indicator. The MACD tool analyzes the convergence and divergence of three moving averages and can signal the beginning of a new trend. MACD also works well on different timeframes and is a fairly simple and popular indicator of technical analysis.
• Zig Zag is an auxiliary indicator that analyzes the highest and lowest points of the cryptocurrency exchange rate and allows you to determine the correct entry points into the market. The plus of the indicator is that it eliminates the noise that can distort the forecast of the trend behavior. Minor fluctuations are simply not taken into account: lines connect the highest and lowest points of the price chart directly. The zigzag shows global market movements, but at the same time it only captures these changes in the past, without giving forecasts on the price behavior in the future.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) — shows the greatest efficiency in a sideways trend. With active course dynamics, RSI may produce incorrect data. Such indicators of technical analysis are called oscillators, and they must be used with caution. The indicator’s algorithms analyze price changes and allow you to evaluate the oversold or overbought status of an asset and, therefore, predict the occurrence of a bull or bear trend.
• CCI (Commodity Channel Index) — The CCI or Commodity Channel Index, as well as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), helps evaluate overbought or oversold assets. This chart with values from minus 100 to plus 100 is displayed under the current price chart and can be applied on any timeframes. A CCI of more than a hundred means that the asset is overbought, and the price is about to fall, and on the contrary, a CCI below minus one hundred indicates the oversoldness of the asset and the likely increase in its price. This tool also refers to oscillators and is used during a lateral trend when there is no clear idea of how the price will behave in the near future.
• ADC and DI — the index of the average direction and direction of movement, signals a change in trend. It looks like three lines on the chart: red — bears, green — bulls, blue (there may be other colors on different platforms) — the strength of the trend. This indicator is fairly reliable on four-hour and day frames. If the trend strength line is within 10−20 points, this indicates that the trend is gaining strength, but if the indicators reach 60−80 points, you should wait for the trend correction. The green and red lines will show who sets the market mood — bulls or bears. If the green line crosses the red line, the trend becomes bullish, and vice versa.
Indicators at Bithumb Global. Source.
Another useful tool available on the Professional Version of Bithumb Global is Trend Lines. It allows you to demonstrate in which direction the price of an asset is moving. The Dow theory, which is the basis of all technical analysis, suggests that no matter how the price behaves, it will always be in a particular trend. If the price behaves relatively evenly and stays in the same range without showing either growth or decline, such a trend is called a side or flat trend.
A growing (“bullish”) trend is characterized by the appearance of a series of ascending highs, with each new peak must be higher than the previous one. Accordingly, the “bearish” downtrend shows points of failure (price low), each subsequent of which will be lower than the previous one.
A trend line can be built on two points of a minimum or maximum, and a third confirming one is mandatory. The more points form a trend line, the more confident and stable the trend itself. The construction points should not be too close to each other in the time frame, otherwise the direction of the trend will not be completely correct. Please note that the uptrend line is plotted below the chart, and the downtrend is above it. The slope on the trend line should also be taken into account — its constancy indicates the stability of the trend. The change in the angle of the trend line is called the acceleration or deceleration of the price movement. The larger the angle, the faster the trend.
A line through price lows is called a support line. As soon as the price reaches it, it finds market support there and, pushing off, again strives upward. The line connecting price highs is called the resistance line.This is the level above which the value of the asset has not yet risen. If the price breaks the support or resistance line, this is a clear signal for a trend violation and a change in trading tactics.
Trendlines at Bithumb Global. Source.
FinallyThe above are the basic trading tools available to traders of the Professional Version of the Bithumb Global crypto-exchange. They will help you figure out how to properly analyze the key metrics of cryptocurrency assets so that you can build the most advanced trading strategy. However, this is not the whole range of tools available to Bithumb Global traders. Follow DeCenter materials to learn about the intricacies of cryptocurrency trading on the advanced cryptocurrency exchange.
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